I come with a smile.

The macro backdrop, theme by theme — and our read.

Things we are watching this week: 20-24 July 2026.

• Global flash PMIs The week's broadest real-time test of the growth outlook. Friday's readings from the U.S., UK, eurozone, Germany, France and Japan should show whether activity is stabilising or whether weakness is spreading across regions and sectors. The detail on new orders, employment and input prices will matter as much as the headline numbers.
• ECB decision The main policy event of the week. The ECB must balance weak regional growth against inflation risks from energy and supply disruption. A more hawkish message would raise the risk that monetary policy remains restrictive precisely as the eurozone economy loses momentum.
• UK labour market Employment, unemployment, vacancies and wage growth will help determine whether the UK slowdown remains orderly. Gradual wage moderation would give the Bank of England more flexibility; a sharper deterioration in hiring would point to a more concerning loss of economic momentum.
• UK retail sales Another test of whether the consumer can continue supporting growth. The key distinction is between households spending more and households actually buying more: resilient nominal sales are less reassuring if volumes remain weak or are being supported by temporary factors.
• China's policy response China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged after second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3%. That puts more pressure on fiscal measures and targeted support to revive domestic demand. Without a stronger consumer or property response, China may remain dependent on exports and industrial policy rather than a broad-based recovery.
• U.S. labour and housing Weekly jobless claims and new-home sales provide useful checks on two rate-sensitive parts of the economy. A gradual cooling would support the soft-landing narrative; a simultaneous weakening in employment and housing would be harder to dismiss as healthy normalisation.
• Alphabet, Tesla, IBM and Intel This week's earnings are also macro data. Alphabet and IBM should provide evidence on enterprise spending and AI investment, Intel on semiconductor and industrial demand, and Tesla on the consumer's appetite for expensive discretionary purchases. The market needs to see that investment and demand are producing revenue, not simply higher capex. Our view: Alphabet remains a particularly interesting bellwether for the current AI investment cycle, as the player that has most irons in the fire, across data, own models, partnerships and a potentially ever larger role offering TPUs and compute to new customers.
• Oil and bond yields Energy volatility remains one of the clearest threats to the growth outlook. Higher oil prices can weaken household demand while keeping inflation and long-term yields elevated — a combination that leaves central banks with less room to support slowing economies. Must be nice to be a vol trader these days.
• Growth breadth Watch whether economically sensitive sectors, smaller companies and lower-quality credit participate in any market strength. If the indices rise while cyclicals, small caps and credit spreads remain cautious, markets may be pricing resilience at the headline level without confirming it underneath.

When bonds stop being boring

An illustration for "when bonds stop being boring".

Equity markets get the headlines. Bonds usually get the footnotes. That works until the footnotes start moving the whole page. For the past few years, investors have been able to talk about AI, earnings, M&A and growth as if the bond market was just background music. But bonds are not background music. They are the price of money, the price of time and, increasingly, the price of credibility.

That is why the recent move in yields matters. Oil and gas prices have risen again due to the Iranian conflict, geopolitical risk is back in the macro conversation, and investors are being reminded that inflation is not only a domestic data point. It can also arrive through energy, supply chains, shipping routes and fiscal responses.

When that happens, bonds stop being boring very quickly. Higher yields do not just affect bond investors. They change the discount rate for equities. They increase government interest costs. They make refinancing more expensive. They pressure leveraged companies. They test housing markets. They force investors to ask whether growth stories are still worth the same multiple when safe assets pay more.

This is the part equity markets sometimes forget. A company can report decent earnings and still struggle if the rate used to value those earnings moves against it. A government can announce ambition and still be questioned if the bond market doubts the funding path. A consumer can keep spending for a while, but mortgages, credit cards and energy bills eventually have a vote.

The market's current tension is simple. Equities want to believe in earnings resilience and AI-led growth. Bonds are asking whether inflation, fiscal pressure and energy risk are being underpriced. Both cannot be ignored.

This does not mean a bond market crisis is the base case. It does not mean equities have to fall simply because yields move higher. But it does mean that the market's lie detector may not only be earnings season. It may also be the long end of the curve.

If long-term yields rise because growth is improving, markets can usually live with that. If they rise because inflation risk, fiscal credibility and geopolitical pressure are returning, that is a very different message.